Montel Logo

    Select your prefered language:

  • * Turkish edition by Montel-Foreks requires separate trial access or subscription.


Technical maintenance

All Montel services are currently unavailable due to planned technical maintenance.

Mild weather until December to lower EU gas demand – experts


19 Sept 2023 13:53




19 Sept 2023 13:53

(Montel) Europe is set for a mild autumn and start to winter, which should lower gas demand for heating, forecasters and traders told Montel.

“The expectation is for October and December to be relatively mild, while above normal temperatures are more restricted to the eastern half of Europe [from western Germany onwards] in November,” said Steve Silver, senior meteorologist at US forecaster Maxar.

“These forecasts are primarily based on historical analogues for the strengthening El Nino and warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.”

US forecaster Atmospheric G2 said it expected Spain, France and Italy to see above normal temperatures from October-December. Germany – Europe’s largest gas consumer – should be warmer than normal next month and in line with seasonal norms in November and December, the forecasts showed.

“This is what the market is currently pricing in. The new normal is mild and windy as global warming is progressing,” said a German trader.

“Only if we should see a prolonged cold of 4-6 weeks, which would draw on gas storage significantly, then we would see a price reaction. But nobody expects that right now.”

Robin Girmes, forecaster at Energy Weather, also expected a mild period ahead.

“The overall outlook is bearish for gas,” he said. “While there may regional cold episodes, the overall warmth is going to prevail.”

High storage levels
The forecasts should ease fears for supply security, said market participants, after a mild September across Europe that had avoided an early start to the heating season.

If the winter did turn cold, however, gas stocks could erode to almost 10% of capacity, Montel reported last week.

European gas storage facilities were last seen at 94.2% of capacity, up nearly 10 percentage points from the same time last year, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed.

The continent’s benchmark TTF front-month gas contract was last seen up EUR 0.91 at EUR 35.38/MWh, on Ice Endex.

European gas prices have averaged EUR 40/MWh so far this year, down from highs above EUR 300/MWh last summer as Russia curbed pipeline supplies to Europe and the bloc scrambled to prepare for its first winter without high flows of Russian gas.

Share this article on:

URL copied!

English newswire snapshot

Montel uses cookies to improve this website. By continuing to use our website you agree to our use of cookies. Read more about cookies and our privacy policy.