(Montel) Spain is likely to miss new green targets expected to be included in its revised climate and energy plan as the country is overinvesting in renewables without developing the supporting infrastructure, consultancy Afry said on Friday.
The government could raise its targets for installed solar and wind capacity to 75 GW and 60 GW, respectively, by 2030, Afry’s senior principal for Spain, Javier Revuelta, told Montel at an industry event in Madrid.
Its current targets are for 39 GW solar and 50 GW wind, up from the current installed capacity of 20 GW and 30 GW, respectively.
Solar and wind lobbies have called on Spain to increase its green ambitions, but the new aims would be “absolutely unrealistic” due to construction constraints, Revuelta said.
Spain added around 9 GW of renewables capacity, including rooftop solar, in 2022, he said.
Analysts predict the country could add 5-10 GW next year depending on permitting and construction bottlenecks, he added.
However, less than half of 55 GW green capacity granted environmental permits in January would be completed due to supply chain issues, Endesa’s CEO said earlier this year.
Lack of storage
“Without elements of [demand] flexibility, overinvestment seems inevitable,” Revuelta said, referring to the slow deployment of storage, which in the future could solve renewable intermittency problems.
For example, it took Iberdrola 10 years to build the Portuguese Tamega (1.2 GW) pump storage complex and there were no similar projects at an advanced stage in Spain, he added.
Increasing renewables targets without adding more storage capacity could further aggravate the situation and lead to solar producers charging only around EUR 20-25/MWh, Revuelta said.
This could threaten long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) as buyers could be tempted to break contracts if they saw cheaper power on the spot market, he added.
Deployment of renewable capacity has already led to significant surplus green power production this year and pushed prices below EUR 10/MWh for more hours.
Its current targets are for 39 GW solar and 50 GW wind, up from the current installed capacity of 20 GW and 30 GW, respectively.
Solar and wind lobbies have called on Spain to increase its green ambitions, but the new aims would be “absolutely unrealistic” due to construction constraints, Revuelta said.
Spain added around 9 GW of renewables capacity, including rooftop solar, in 2022, he said.
Analysts predict the country could add 5-10 GW next year depending on permitting and construction bottlenecks, he added.
However, less than half of 55 GW green capacity granted environmental permits in January would be completed due to supply chain issues, Endesa’s CEO said earlier this year.
Lack of storage
“Without elements of [demand] flexibility, overinvestment seems inevitable,” Revuelta said, referring to the slow deployment of storage, which in the future could solve renewable intermittency problems.
For example, it took Iberdrola 10 years to build the Portuguese Tamega (1.2 GW) pump storage complex and there were no similar projects at an advanced stage in Spain, he added.
Increasing renewables targets without adding more storage capacity could further aggravate the situation and lead to solar producers charging only around EUR 20-25/MWh, Revuelta said.
This could threaten long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) as buyers could be tempted to break contracts if they saw cheaper power on the spot market, he added.
Deployment of renewable capacity has already led to significant surplus green power production this year and pushed prices below EUR 10/MWh for more hours.
