(Montel) Blasts of sunshine and wind in Germany could provide support to renewables through to mid-April, according to forecasters on Friday, potentially adding to further pressure on power prices.
SMHI said it expects solar output for the week of 20 March to mostly reach the 10-15 GW range, though there could be days where it rises to a 21-25 GW range. Average solar output for that week of the year is around 7.2 GW, according to Montel’s Energy Quantified, while solar has averaged around 5.9 GW for the current week.
Beyond that, SMHI forecast solar a little below or at seasonal norms as April unfolds.
Looking at wind, next week should start with gusts higher than normal for most of Europe, according to Metdesk, fluctuating between 5-20 GW. The norm is 19 GW, according to EQ. But that could pick up in the following week, with SMHI expecting a chance of wind power harvesting 15-30 GW, against a weekly norm of 16.5 GW, according to EQ.
Further ahead, SMHI said it forecast wind at seasonal averages or slightly below average at the start of April, due to expectations of wind flows moving south. EQ puts the averages for those weeks in the 14-16 GW range.
The need for heating fuel could also catch some relief, with temperatures set to rise to a range of 3-5C above the average temperature of 5.9C for the week of March 20, SMHI said.
Slightly colder
However, temperatures are expected to revert to norms or even slightly colder than normal for the tail part of March and into April, it said. Metdesk forecast that the end of March could be “relatively cooler and more unsettled”.
Meanwhile, the Alpine region could be in for a warm, wet spell, with temperatures possibly double the average for the week of 20 March, amid significant rainfall, a trend that could continue into April, SMHI said.
Although temperatures and precipitation levels could drop as April continues, with temperatures possibly even sinking below normal, SMHI said to expect “wetter than normal conditions” for the region that month.
In the German power market, the April baseload was last changing hands at EUR 104/MWh, down EUR 2.35 from its closing price on the EEX on Thursday.
Beyond that, SMHI forecast solar a little below or at seasonal norms as April unfolds.
Looking at wind, next week should start with gusts higher than normal for most of Europe, according to Metdesk, fluctuating between 5-20 GW. The norm is 19 GW, according to EQ. But that could pick up in the following week, with SMHI expecting a chance of wind power harvesting 15-30 GW, against a weekly norm of 16.5 GW, according to EQ.
Further ahead, SMHI said it forecast wind at seasonal averages or slightly below average at the start of April, due to expectations of wind flows moving south. EQ puts the averages for those weeks in the 14-16 GW range.
The need for heating fuel could also catch some relief, with temperatures set to rise to a range of 3-5C above the average temperature of 5.9C for the week of March 20, SMHI said.
Slightly colder
However, temperatures are expected to revert to norms or even slightly colder than normal for the tail part of March and into April, it said. Metdesk forecast that the end of March could be “relatively cooler and more unsettled”.
Meanwhile, the Alpine region could be in for a warm, wet spell, with temperatures possibly double the average for the week of 20 March, amid significant rainfall, a trend that could continue into April, SMHI said.
Although temperatures and precipitation levels could drop as April continues, with temperatures possibly even sinking below normal, SMHI said to expect “wetter than normal conditions” for the region that month.
In the German power market, the April baseload was last changing hands at EUR 104/MWh, down EUR 2.35 from its closing price on the EEX on Thursday.
