European gas stocks look set to be 80% higher than usual at 55bcm, or just under 50% of capacity, by the end of winter, French research institute IFPEN said on Thursday.
Mild weather, coupled with reductions in industrial and domestic gas usage, had resulted in lower storage withdrawals than expected, IFPEN’s director of economics and forecasting Francois Kalaydjian told Montel.
Europe had also benefited from an abundance of LNG, thanks to low competing demand from China and increased US supply, he said.
Stocks were seen last at around 79bcm, or 69% of capacity, compared with 39bcm at the same time last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
“At the end of the winter, we can expect gas stocks to reach 55bcm in Europe, where we would usually be around 30bcm, which will allow us to avoid the race to secure gas supplies we saw in 2022,” Kalaydjian said.
However, there remained a risk of heightened competition for LNG from China, “if it resumes its economic growth”, which could drive up prices, he said.
Coal switch?
Gas prices on the Dutch TTF hub were predicted by IFPEN to average EUR 61/MWh in 2023 and EUR 64/MWh in 2024, down from the 2022 average of EUR 123/MWh but still more than double pre-war prices, according to estimates based on exchange futures prices.
If prices stay in a range of EUR 60-75/MWh, it could encourage countries such as India, China and possibly Germany, depending on carbon price developments – to switch to coal for their electricity production, he said.
Prices looked set to hit EUR 60-70/MWh in Q4, Energy Aspects analyst Trevor Skiorski said on Wednesday.
Europe had also benefited from an abundance of LNG, thanks to low competing demand from China and increased US supply, he said.
Stocks were seen last at around 79bcm, or 69% of capacity, compared with 39bcm at the same time last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
“At the end of the winter, we can expect gas stocks to reach 55bcm in Europe, where we would usually be around 30bcm, which will allow us to avoid the race to secure gas supplies we saw in 2022,” Kalaydjian said.
However, there remained a risk of heightened competition for LNG from China, “if it resumes its economic growth”, which could drive up prices, he said.
Coal switch?
Gas prices on the Dutch TTF hub were predicted by IFPEN to average EUR 61/MWh in 2023 and EUR 64/MWh in 2024, down from the 2022 average of EUR 123/MWh but still more than double pre-war prices, according to estimates based on exchange futures prices.
If prices stay in a range of EUR 60-75/MWh, it could encourage countries such as India, China and possibly Germany, depending on carbon price developments – to switch to coal for their electricity production, he said.
Prices looked set to hit EUR 60-70/MWh in Q4, Energy Aspects analyst Trevor Skiorski said on Wednesday.
