Nordic power rises on dry weather outlook, buoyant gas

The front-year contract traded last up EUR 6.62 at EUR 180/MWh, while the Q1 2023 contract stood EUR 7 higher on the previous day’s close at EUR 414/MWh.

On the weather front, the latest 10-day outlook showed precipitation for the hydropower-intensive region would amount to 3.5-4.3 TWh of potential production, well below the seasonal average of 6.9 TWh, according to Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ).

This would see the hydrological balance – a measure of reserves stored in reservoirs, snow and soil – increase its current deficit of 11.6 TWh to 12.5 TWh in two weeks’ time, EQ data showed.

Apart from the dry weather outlook, Nordic power prices were also taking a cue from a fresh surge in gas prices, trading group Energi Danmark said in a note.

Europe’s benchmark Dutch TTF gas front-month contract was last seen up EUR 13.64 at EUR 199.74/MWh, with the 2023 contract rising EUR 11.97 to EUR 202.10

Gas futures prices climbed following reports of leaks in Russia’s suspended Nord Stream pipelines to Germany, with Denmark and Sweden saying the damage was likely caused by an act of sabotage.

Meanwhile, Russia gas giant Gazprom said late on Tuesday it could impose sanctions on Ukrainian TSO Naftogaz, which would in effect cut all current deliveries to Europe.

“The threat of a complete and permanent loss of Russian gas supplies should have a bullish impact also on Nordic power prices, with most impact however likely to be on the longer end of the curve,” said a Finnish utility portfolio manager.

Spot price set to rise

Closer in, the Nordic system price for Thursday delivery was due to rise from the current price of EUR 164.01/MWh, with Montel’s AI-based model pegging it at EUR 266.01/MWh.

Average Nordic wind power output was forecast to fall from 7.8 GW today to 6.9 GW on Thursday, while average power demand should rise slightly from 38.9 GW to around 39.4 GW, according to EQ.