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GAS – TTF front month extends high on supply concerns

Gas

22 Jun 2021 12:22

Berlin

22 Jun 2021 12:22

(Montel) Front-month gas on the TTF hub extended a 13-year high above EUR 30/MWh on Tuesday driven by ongoing Norwegian supply outages, stronger Asian LNG prices and weak wind power in the near term.

The July contract on the Dutch TTF hub surpassed Monday’s high to last reach EUR 30.30/MWh, up EUR 0.80 on the Ice Endex exchange.

The NBP front month, meanwhile, was last seen up 2.10p at 74.10p/th.

Rising Asian LNG prices provided a push to European gas, with the market still wary of continued competition for future deliveries to the mainland, limiting the chances for full stocks by the start of winter, said analysts at Brook Green Supply.

The Asian JKM marker for August edged USD 0.08 higher settling at USD 11.95/MMBtu (EUR 34.29/MWh) on the exchange.

Storage sites currently stood at 45% of capacity, up 3 percentage points from the week before, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed.

LNG concerns
“I think the potential for hot weather next month is supporting Asian demand and thus prices but as Europe has heavily depleted storages we compete for the same LNG and therefore need to track Asia,” said Refinitiv analyst Marina Tsygankova.

Meanwhile, current Norwegian gas production outages would fall from 96mcm/day to 47mcm/day on Friday, with the Karsto field due to return by Wednesday, according to data from grid operator Gassco.

Early momentum in the oil market, which saw the Brent crude front month exceed USD 75/t, also added to the overall bullish sentiment, said market participants.

Low renewables should encourage increased gas burning for power generation in the near term and limit the downside, one analyst said.

In Germany, wind output would plunge to an average 5.7 GW across the next 14 days, 5.5 GW below the normal, according to Montel’s Energy Quantified.

Day-ahead gas was also stronger, with the TTF last up EUR 0.57 at EUR 30.50/MWh at one broker, while the NBP equivalent was 2.25p higher at 76.50p/th.

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