(Montel) Poland will miss its 2020 renewable energy target of 15% by almost three percentage points, the Warsaw-based think tank Forum Energii said in a report on Thursday.
The country will miss its renewable target by 2.8 percentage points, said analysts Marcin Scigan and Michal Jedra. This comes despite a projected 4% drop in power consumption, a decrease in the use of fossil fuels by industry and growing solar capacity.
The gap could be filled by annual production of 9.8 GW from onshore wind farms or 5.9 GW from offshore wind farms or 22 GW from photovoltaics, according to the think tank.
The country, which depends on coal for 80% of consumed power, currently has 10 GW of capacity from renewable sources like wind and solar. Upcoming auctions suggest that could rise to 14 GW by 2024.
Last year, renewables accounted for 11.5% of energy consumption, according to Forum Energii estimates, a rise of only 0.2 percentage point from the previous year.
The report comes seven months after Warsaw-based Institute for Renewable Energy said the country will likely miss the target by three percentage points.
In 2018, Poland's financial watchdog NIK said the country could face a EUR 2bn penalty from the EU for not meeting its 15% renewables obligation.
The ruling Law and Justice Party banned onshore wind development in 2016 but reversed its decision in 2018. It has since auctioned 5 GW of renewable capacity, mostly onshore wind and solar. The country plans an additional 10 GW in offshore wind and 20 GW of photovoltaics by 2040 to reduce its exposure to carbon prices.